Chapter 1: The impact of the Information & Comunication Technology on the supply relationships
"The Forrester effect" is based on simulations executed on the course of the orders and of the supplyes
in a chain of enterprises where the members to mount are the suppliers of the members immediately to go them.
The simulation, after to have established the structure of the supply chain, the political of purchase and management of
the supplyes, have evidenced that in the time a meaningful effect of amplification of the question in the transfer of the
orders from the actors is found to goes them towards those to mount with to great and irregular oscillations in the supplyes
long the supply chain.
The simulation of the behavior of a row evidenced that an increase of 10% of the sales to the consumers
could cause a variation of the production to the inside of the supply chain comprised between +40% and the -3%, while the orders
not evade oscillated between 52% and -6%.
We consider one supply chain composed from four actors: a retailer, a wholesaler, a
producer and a supplier.
The final question to the retailer is reduced from 100 pieces in period 1 to 95 in the successes to
you.
All the actors of the supply chain adopt the same politics of management of the supplyes: to have to warehouse to
the end of every period a quantitative one of products (Sf) equal to the relative question to the same period.
The supply begins them to period 1 () is of 100 pieces for all the actors.
To the beginning of the period the 1 retailer has 100 pieces to warehouse (Si) and he is found to it must satisfy a question
of 100 pieces.
From the moment that means to have to warehouse to the end of period a 1 pieces number (Sf) equal to the question,
supplies to acquire from the wholesaler 100 pieces (Purchases = Sf - + Question).
Analogous one proceeds for all the actors of
the supply chain and for all the periods succeeded you to the first one.
The diagrams show the course of the question, the
production/purchases and the final supplyes for retailer, wholesaler, producer, supplier.
You notice yourself like, to forehead of a final question of relatively stable market generate more and more wide fluctuations -
moving itself to mount along the supply chain - as far as is the question that the orders of production/purchases that of the
final supplyes.
Figure 1.2: Oscillation of the long question the filera as a result of one variation of the final question
Figure 1. 3: Variation of the production/purchases long the Supply chain
Figure 1.4:Variazione of the final supplyes along the Supply Chain to continuation of the variation of the final
question The course and the second amplitude Forrester have not had a lot to changes of the market but rather
to the structure of the supply chain, that it determines the way to transfer the information and the flow of materials.
Recent studies 4 on the effect forrester have been faces to identify symptoms and
causes of the amplification.
They are considers symptoms you:
- The excessive level of supplyes.
- It enables too much productive insufficient or too much excessive.
- Planning of the uncertain production.
In the study of because phenomena of amplification of the emerged question are
taken place that the causes can be tied to behaviors of not rations nature like:
- Decisions not coordinated of the actors
As an example the actors of the network act independently heading to maximize
object it to you characterize them, leaving the supplier disabled in comprising the reasons of greater/smaller orders from part
of the customer. - Various weight given to the performance pointers:
As an example it is stretched to attribute greater
importance to the stock breaches that to the cost in order to maintain the supplyes. Other behaviors consider you apparently
ration them are: - Modernizations of the forecasts of the question:
In kind the forecast is calculated on gives to you
historical. The purchase volumes come calculate to you adding the amount necessary in order to increase the supplyes,
in order to satisfy upgrade it them future question, to the quantitative one of emergency supply.
You can carry to having
a quantitative one of supplyes of excessive emergency.
- Orders to lotteries:
The orders are accumulateed before evading them this in order to take advantage of econome of scale,
of transport, the effect is a course of the orders characterized from elevated oscillations between ups and downs question.
- Fluctuations of the price:
A lot often is tied to reductions in price on the amount. Also this phenomenon produces
the result that the actors to mount in the supply chain must face widths oscillations, finding themselves to operate in conditions
strongly saturation of the ablein order to support the question induced from the promotions or to conditions of ablein
excess, in how much the customer stops to acquire until does not get exausted the supplyes
As it can be understand these causes generate one series of chain reactions that effect on the entire one supply chain.
An increment of the question produces to a deficit of assets in a part any of the supply chain.
The normal reaction to every danger of stock breach is the local protection, has therefore one tendency to the "overordering ".
The overproduction big wave have a probable impact on the sales forecasts and modify the perception from part of the supplier
on the real increment begins them of the question.
Some students 5 have identified in
the uncertainty the carrier through which the Forrester effect propaga.
As far as the sources of the every uncertainty actor of the supply chain must some face three above all:
- Suppliers: they are subject to many causes of variability of the performances as an example season
in the course of the harvests, unexpected during the transport, inefficiency of the planning system and programming of production.
All factors that can minare the thoroughness and punctual of the deliveries.
- Processes operated to you: in the systems operated to you the uncertainty is generated a widest casuistry, than can to
cause the interruption of the operating process, that it goes from the simple breakdown of a machinery to inadequate models
of control.
- Customers: volatilitá of the preferences and the variability of the question they are from always uncertainty
elements and vary also to second of the position of the actor in the row.
Naturally these three sources act to the inside of the row feeding therefore the so-called cycle of the uncertainty.
- Note 4: Lee ET al.1997; Dornier ET al.1998; Towill 1997
- Note 5: LEE H.L., BILLINGTON C.(1992), Sloan Management Review Managing, supply chain inventory: pitfalls and opportunities (pp. 65-73)