The problem of the forecast of rebelling of the obsolescence - Iaccarino Thesis

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Chapter 5 - the problem of the forecast of rebelling of the obsolescence.

From how much said fin'ora, it has been understood that rebelling of an obsolescence problem it can cause a remarkable economic impact, financial and technological, it is in the gathering phase, than in that one of use of a complex system.
In order much time, has been watched to this truth with an optical of reactive type: it was taken in consideration that a member could become obsolete, single in the moment in which such possibility it was realized and, only then, was run to the shelters.
With passing of the years, in the development of methodologies, software and database, that they had to that making with the management of the obsolescences of the members, much emphasis it has been placed on the forecast of this and the actions that could have mitigated the phenomenon in the moment in which this it had been revealed.
Even if not there is null to obbiettare to the tendency to optimize the application of methods reatti to you, sure the much most effective one and efficient it is protendere towards resolutive philosophies for-assets: the challenge that is stimulating the atmosphere of the search during the last few years, in fact, consists in supplying to the planners instruments in order to preview the availability or less of the members to insert in the plan, during all the cycle of life of the system in phase of planning.
Foundations of such forecasts, are the cycles of life of the same members on which the analysis is stopped: it is of fundamental importance, in fact, to establish the permanence of a determined device on the market and, above all, for how much time still this last one will be available for upgrades them purchaser.

5.1 The cycle of life of the electronic members.

The greater part of the electronic members passes through various is made of the cycle of life to which corresponds different characteristics.
When it is had to that making with this type of dispositive you, it is because it must make one progettuale choice, is because it is found to having to us to support a system that incorporates such deliveries, is well to know in that phase of the life these are found and for how much time they will remain you.
The Electronic Industries Association (EIA), to the aim to supply a standard to which the operating industries in the field of the electronics they could refer, defines this is made in the way following¹:

Introduction: E' the first phase of the cycle of life of the product, in which the industries manufacturers can only satisfy a market limited, in how much, because of the phenomena legacies to the learning processes (you attend modifications and equipments not specialized), the produced volumes are still small; because of this and of the financial expenditures begins them, the selling price, in this phase, is elevated. The probability of obsolescence for the members in the introductory and relatively high phase (approximately 10%). For this reason, when member in introductory phase for a plan is believed to choose one, a risk analysis must always be made.
Increase: The devices you that they exceed the introductory phase, enter in that one of increase that is characterized from one fast increase of the sale, continuation from one reduction of the feasible selling price thanks to the economies of scale; this happens also in order to contrast a great number of concurrent industries that try to enter in the market attracted from the gain opportunity. The obsolescence probability decreases quickly during this phase, even if an analysis of risk and an accurate appraisal of the costs and the reliability must be carried out before choosing a member in this phase, to incorporate in a new plan.
Maturity: In this phase the sales catch up their maximum; the device is characterized from an elevated quality, guaranteed also from its progettuale stability. In this period, many concurrent, attracted from the low production costs, can enter on the market; it can happen, moreover, that some already present industries in it decide to move the production towards geographic areas where this is more economic. The obsolescence probability, in this phase, is to its minimum. For this reason and for the high quality, the devices mature you are strongly recommend to you for being introduced in new plans.
Saturation: The sales of the members in this phase begin to decline, while the industries leader in the field begin to dedicate their efforts in the development of new technologies. The obsolescence probability slowly begins to increase. The devices you in this moment of the life cycle are a lot convenient for the short term.
Decline: To this point of the life cycle, the volume of sale of the devices you cove remarkablly and quickly is for social causes and acclimatizes them, is for the introduction of new technologies that render available more convenient or simply better members. In this phase the abandonment of the market from part of the industries is observed leader and meager remaining the production is supported from those enterprises that are behind schedule technological. Obviously, the obsolescence probability grows quickly and, therefore, the devices you in such moment of the life cycle must be avoid to you in new plans.
Phase-out: To this point of the life of a member the sales and the ability to serve the market catch up the lowest level, until the productive lines do not come completely discharged. Generally, the suppliers send an warning of imminent cessation of the production suggesting, in many cases, an alternative to the member not more available.

The cycle of life of the devices electronic you, in agreement with established how much from the EIA, can therefore be outlined like in the following figure.

In it which come also brought back some characteristics the price, the volume of sale, the use of the member in issue, the modified parts, the number of concurrent companies between they and the profit that gain the producers. For ognuna of such characteristics, then, a relative level to every phase of the cycle of life of the product is indicated. In others banns² the subdivision of the bell-shaped curve, representative of the cycle of life of a device, comes seen in way a little various one: they come, in fact, modified the extensions of some is made of this and proposed the introduction of other subdivisions of the temporal interval in which a member it remains on the market.
More in the detail, the modifications over pointed out are:

The phase of Maturity comprises those that in standard EIA comes divided in maturity and saturation.
Adding the phase of Dismissione and successive Obsolescenza to the phase of phase-out comes and defined as that period in which the producers they stop to under investigation try the device and this last one remains available on the market for a limited period of single time if a source aftermarket decides to acquire the stocks available. Therefore a part becomes obsolete when the technology with which it is produced more is implemented, for which can say that the obsolescence happens to level of technology, while the dismissione happens to level of part number.

A qualitative schematizzazione of this other approach to the cycle of life of a device is supplied from the following figure.

Figure 5.2: Curve of the cycle of life of a device electronic³

In the same article they come evidenced some anomalies that can find in the cycle of life of some devices electronic you.
It comes specified that all the members do not pass through the six are made evidenced in Fig. 5,1, but some can endure one “dead women premature”, after a false one start-up, others can find vital space in a niche market; it can still succeed that some devices you come revitalizing after the phase of decline.
The possibilities that such anomalies are taken place effectively, however, are multiple and function is of economic contingencies that associate-environmental.
As an example, a false one start-up can be verified for those members assigns you to along period of increase in order then “only dying” because of one or more of the following reasons:

Introduction of a better concurrent device;
The improvement of a concurrent device;
Location of a problem associated with the device;
The attainment of a volume of such sale not to allow economies of scale;
Lack of an only and preponderant application of the device.

Those members who ritagliano a niche market; then, they have, usually, an only application and for this they never do not catch up elevates sale volumes to you.
An other worthy case of Notes regards the revitalization of a member after its phase of decline defining new segments of market, new applications or simply creating one new image for the product.
Examples of anomalies in the cycle of life of the electronic members are outline to you in the successive figure.

Figure 5.3: Anomalies in the cycle of life of the devices you electronic⁴

1: Given Product life cycle model, American Standard ANSI/EIA-724, 19 september 1997.
2: M. Pacht and D. Das, The electronic part life cycle, IEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, vol. 23, n° 1, March 2000.
3: M. Pacht and D. Das, The electronic part life cycle, IEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, vol. 23, n° 1, March 2000.
4: M. Pacht and D. Das, The electronic part life cycle, IEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, vol. 23, n° 1, March 2000.

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